Rash predictions

John Quiggin at CT:

...the startling events in North Africa have undercut the recently popular criticism of the Fukuyama thesis, based on the temporary successes of Putin and the Chinese oligarchs. There is no reason to think that the rule of Putin, or of the Communist Party of China, will outlast the next economic downturn, or even slowdown, any more than Ben Ali or Mubarak.

Predictions are hazardous, and this one seems especially so. I think a slow evolutionary change in China's political system is more likely than that the Communist Party will fall in some kind of cataclysm. I could be wrong, of course.

Note to readers: I wrote a lot here in January but I will not be keeping up that pace in the next few months, so readers should expect more downtime between posts.