Update: A quite revealing column about Karzai by Joshua Partlow.
I haven't said anything about recent events in Afghanistan (including Koran burnings and the reaction; the killing of 16 Afghan civilians by an as-yet-unnamed U.S. soldier who has now apparently been flown out of the country by the military [update note: he has now been named]; and the Taliban's suspension of the barely-begun peace talks). None of this bodes very well, though there is disagreement about how damaging these events are to the NATO/ISAF position, and Obama and Cameron have been trying to put the best face on things.
Those, such as S. Walt, who argued from the beginning that the Afghanistan 'surge' was a mistake feel that their judgment has been vindicated, and I was hard put to do anything but agree with Walt's recent post to that effect. Commenting on a post of mine in August 2010, Hank suggested that patience was required. About a year-and-a-half later, I'm not sure that a great deal has been accomplished; we won't know for sure, I suppose, until the ISAF forces leave and the Afghan army and police are more or less on their own. But I suspect that the Afghanistan surge will go down as one of Obama's biggest foreign policy mistakes (or even, per Walt, the biggest).
P.s. See also this interview on 'The World' (PRI) about, among other things, how the soldier accused in the shootings might have been able to walk off the base unnoticed.