Monday, October 20, 2008

How will Virginia vote?

The polls say Obama is leading in Virginia, but polls are not infallible. Can he really win the state? One scenario: Run up large margins in northern Va., especially in the areas closest to D.C.; hold his own in the northern exurbs; carry Richmond; win in Charlottesville (home of UVa) and Blacksburg (home of Va Tech) by substantial amounts; and make at least a respectable showing in the southwest and in the Shenandoah valley.

A half-century ago, Virginia was in the grip of the Byrd machine and in many parts of the state there was bitter 'massive resistance' to implementation of the Brown decision. The state has come quite a long way since then. Living in neighboring Maryland, and having spent a recent Sunday afternoon canvassing for Obama in Virginia, I feel more than a casual interest in how Virginia votes. It will be very exciting if Virginia rises to this occasion.

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